Stock investors won't authority animation for Santa

NEW YORK – Santa came aboriginal for Wall Street this year by carrying a 22 percent acknowledgment for 2009, and with aloof a scattering of trading canicule to go, banal investors aren't assured to acquisition abundant added beneath the tree.

While it may be apathetic activity in the markets, investors will be acquisitive to see if shoppers about-face out in abounding force for the anniversary affairs rush.

Investors will pay absorption to a final account of third-quarter gross calm product, but with the bazaar already factoring in an bread-and-butter recovery, the GDP abstracts could arm-twist a aerial response. Reports on absolute home sales and new home sales additionally will be account noting, due to the axial role that the apartment sector's collapse played in aftermost year's banking crisis.

With the anniversary arcade division additionally wrapping up this anniversary in the admission to Christmas Day on Friday, this week's aloft bread-and-butter indicators will accommodate customer sentiment, claimed spending and the latest account claims. On Thursday, the New York Banal Exchange trading attic will abutting aboriginal in acknowledgment of Christmas Eve.

Developments on the geopolitical advanced will additionally be on the alarm and could aching stocks if tensions amid Iraq and Iran amplify over an oilfield dispute.

Markets historically adore a short, candied "Santa Claus rally" in the final canicule of December and the alpha of January. But the S&P 500 racked up a accretion of 63 percent from March's 12-year closing low, investors catechism what agitator could drive the bazaar decidedly higher.

"I anticipation there ability be one added advance higher, but it now looks like investors are accommodating to let the bazaar consolidate its assets this year, and are blessed to lock in the profits that they've established," said Michael Sheldon, arch bazaar architect at RDM Banking in Westport, Connecticut.

The Standard & Poor's 500 (.SPX) has drifted in a ambit amid 1,085 and 1,119 back the alpha of November as bazaar players became added anxious with attention 2009's assets rather than demography chancy bets. The S&P 500 is up 22.1 percent for the year.

The changed alternation amid the U.S. dollar and stocks has attenuated this month, as the greenback's backlash has alone bound the banal market's gains.

Year-end window bathrobe -- back armamentarium managers advertise underperformers in favor of gainers to bandbox up portfolios -- could lift stocks that accept done able-bodied this year.

Volatility could additionally access abutting anniversary as beneath participants accomplish it easier to advance the bazaar around. Indeed, the bazaar has about climbed on ablaze aggregate this year, but best analysts apprehend stocks to bullwork sideways.

"You will apparently see some bashful window bathrobe activity on, so in my opinion, you could see higher-quality stocks do a bit better," said Haag Sherman, co-founder and arch advance administrator of Salient Partners, an advance close in Houston.

"But I don't anticipate there's activity to be any actual movements amid now and year-end."

UPTICK SEEN IN GDP AND HOME SALES

On Tuesday, the gross calm artefact address is accepted to appearance the U.S. abridgement broadcast at an anniversary amount of 2.8 percent in the third quarter, in band with the antecedent reading.

Existing home sales for November additionally will be appear on Tuesday, with economists forecasting sales will dispatch to a seasonally adapted anniversary clip of 6.25 actor units from 6.10 actor in October.

On Wednesday, new home sales for November are accepted to bend up to a seasonally adapted anniversary amount of 440,000 units from 430,000 in October.

RETAIL'S "ARCTIC WINTER"

Most chiefly for the market's outlook, investors will barometer the success of the anniversary arcade division afterward "Super Saturday" weekend. Retailers are acquisitive to see a billow of shoppers over the aftermost weekend afore Christmas, but experts agnosticism whether it will be abundant to advance sales abundant aloft aftermost year's afflictive tally.

Last year was the aboriginal time anniversary arcade fell during this decade, according to the International Council of Arcade Centers as shoppers ashen about the banking crisis and growing unemployment. Spending has remained bloodless this year and the abridgement of customer accord charcoal one of the better headwinds to the beginning bread-and-butter recovery.

"Last year was a alternation wreck. It was the chill winter of retail," said Lawrence Creatura, disinterestedness bazaar architect and portfolio administrator at Federated Clover Capital Advisors in Rochester, New York.

"Surpassing that is not a aerial hurdle, and the actuality that we're activity to aloof bending accomplished that akin this year is conspicuous."

A snapshot of how retailers fared over the weekend will appear from anecdotal affirmation on how active food were, as able-bodied as from sales and cartage abstracts from ShopperTrak, a clandestine close that monitors such statistics.

Further acumen into the backbone of consumers' purchasing ability and their affection to absorb will appear from a final account of December customer affect on Wednesday. Economists are assured a account of 73.5, compared with a antecedent account of 67.4, according to a Reuters poll.

The November claimed assets address on the aforementioned day is accepted to appearance a dispatch of 0.5 percent, up from a accretion of 0.2 percent the antecedent month. But burning is accepted to ease, ascent 0.6 percent, compared with the antecedent month's 0.7 percent gain.

Rounding out the week's abstracts on Thursday will be antecedent claims for abandoned benefits, which are accepted to abatement to 470,000 from 480,000 the anniversary before. For added capacity on bread-and-butter indicators, see

Durable appurtenances orders for November additionally will be appear on Thursday. The anticipation calls for a 0.5 percent accretion in November, compared with a 0.6 percent bead in October.

A scattering of balance will additionally be on tap, including after-effects from Walgreen Co (WAG.N), ConAgra Foods Inc (CAG.N) and Micron Technology Inc (MU.N).

EYES ON IRAQ AND IRAN

A abeyant headwind for markets could be any access in tensions amid Iraq and Iran. On Friday, Iraq accepted that Iran anon abjure its soldiers from a acknowledged oilfield on the two countries' border, but Iran denied any incursion. [ID:nLDE5BH1BI]

While the U.S. banal bazaar was artless on Friday, an accretion in abhorrence amid Iraq and Iran could advance investors out of stocks and into safe-haven assets such as the U.S. dollar or Treasury bonds.

"Any dispatch of aggression, or abeyant disruption in the accumulation of oil would accept a added allusive appulse on broker sentiment," Creatura said.

On Friday, U.S. awkward oil futures acclimatized at $73.36 a barrel, up 71 cents, or about 1 percent, with Middle Eastern tensions acknowledging oil prices.

(The Wall St Anniversary Ahead cavalcade runs every Friday. Questions or comments on this cavalcade can be e-mailed to leah.schnurr@thomsonreuters.com)

(Reporting by Leah Schnurr; Additional advertisement by Ellis Mnyandu; Editing by Jan Paschal)

 

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